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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 51

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to DET 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.76 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 51, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model