Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 81

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Detroit Lions 3

(12:55) 4-J.Berry punts 50 yards to DET 31, Center-57-K.Canaday. 39-J.Agnew to DET 42 for 11 yards (44-T.Matakevich; 31-M.Hilton).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.83 EP
59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 81, worth -4.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model