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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 5-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to ARI 13, Center-86-K.Nelson. 33-K.Williams to ARI 15 for 2 yards (31-R.Mostert).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.21 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 25, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model