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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2017-11-05 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

ARI
50.0%
SF
50.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.159 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • ARI on 7 more days rest than SF
  • SF defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: C.J. Beathard (SF) -0.240 vs Drew Stanton (ARI) -0.417 EPA/dropback (ARI starting Drew Stanton in place of Carson Palmer)
  • ARI defense: -0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 19
–
SF 20
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

ARI

Daniel Munyer C Out Toe
Brittan Golden WR Questionable Groin
Chad Williams WR Questionable Back
Karlos Dansby LB Questionable Finger
Andre Ellington RB Questionable Quadricep
Frostee Rucker DT Questionable Knee

SF

Pierre Garcon WR Out Neck
Garry Gilliam T Out Knee
D.J. Jones DT Out Knee
Aaron Lynch DE Out Calf
Joe Staley T Out Eye
Solomon Thomas DE Out Knee
K'Waun Williams CB Out Quadricep
Reuben Foster LB Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 20
–
SF 10

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:23 TD ARI (10:23) (Shotgun) 5-D.Stanton pass short right to 13-Ja.Brown for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-D.Buckner]. 0-YAC ARI 6 – SF 0
  • Q2 15:00 FG SF (15:00) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. ARI 7 – SF 3
  • Q2 11:08 TD ARI (11:08) (Shotgun) 5-D.Stanton pass short right to 84-J.Gresham for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in endzone. 0-YAC ARI 13 – SF 3
  • Q3 09:48 TD SF (9:48) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 14 – SF 9
  • Q4 13:35 FG ARI (13:35) 4-P.Dawson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 17 – SF 10
  • Q4 05:37 FG ARI (5:37) 4-P.Dawson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 20 – SF 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 90%

    (13:06) 4-P.Dawson 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee. P.Dawson's kick hit right upright.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:27) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to ARI 35, Center-86-K.Nelson. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 37 for 2 yards (38-A.Colbert).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 13 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:50) 2-A.Lee punts 43 yards to SF 23, Center-49-J.Drescher, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 13 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 23%

    (5:37) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to ARI 12, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:44) 2-A.Lee punts 58 yards to SF 21, Center-49-J.Drescher. 81-T.Taylor to SF 24 for 3 yards (36-B.Baker).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 16 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:17) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to ARI 43, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-97-D.Watson.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:47) 2-A.Lee punts 41 yards to SF 16, Center-49-J.Drescher. 81-T.Taylor to SF 18 for 2 yards (36-B.Baker).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 85%

    (15:00) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:24) 5-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to ARI 13, Center-86-K.Nelson. 33-K.Williams to ARI 15 for 2 yards (31-R.Mostert).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (8:53) 2-A.Lee punts 45 yards to SF 32, Center-49-J.Drescher. 81-T.Taylor to SF 37 for 5 yards (80-I.Momah).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:57) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to ARI 15, Center-86-K.Nelson. 33-K.Williams to ARI 23 for 8 yards (38-A.Colbert, 86-K.Nelson).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 55%

    (:33) 5-B.Pinion punts 32 yards to ARI 6, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-31-R.Mostert.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 13 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:36) 2-A.Lee punts 39 yards to SF 15, Center-49-J.Drescher, fair catch by 17-V.Bolden.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:03) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to ARI 28, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 97%

    (13:35) 4-P.Dawson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 18 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:46) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to ARI 44, Center-86-K.Nelson. 33-K.Williams to ARI 48 for 4 yards (86-K.Nelson).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 95%

    (5:37) 4-P.Dawson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 27%

    (3:47) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass incomplete short right to 28-C.Hyde (56-K.Dansby).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 5 at the 57 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:56) 2-A.Lee punts 44 yards to SF 13, Center-49-J.Drescher. 17-V.Bolden to SF 13 for no gain (28-J.Bethel).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 14 at the 91 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short right to 19-A.Robinson to SF 20 for 11 yards (20-D.Bucannon). Caught at SF 15. 5-YAC