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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 77

Arizona Cardinals 14 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 2-A.Lee punts 45 yards to SF 32, Center-49-J.Drescher. 81-T.Taylor to SF 37 for 5 yards (80-I.Momah).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.05 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP