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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 63

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(7:57) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to ARI 15, Center-86-K.Nelson. 33-K.Williams to ARI 23 for 8 yards (38-A.Colbert, 86-K.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.65 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model