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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 13

Arizona Cardinals 17 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 4-P.Dawson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Drescher, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.22 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP