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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 49

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(3:47) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass incomplete short right to 28-C.Hyde (56-K.Dansby).

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.24 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model