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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 51

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to ARI 12, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.49 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model