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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 16 at the 82

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to ARI 43, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-97-D.Watson.

The Three Options

GO -2.97 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.70 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 82, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 40, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model