Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 5-M.Bosher punts 54 yards to CAR 10, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-K.Clay to CAR 12 for 2 yards (53-L.Reynolds). CAR-12-K.Clay was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.06 EP
65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model