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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2017-11-05 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

ATL
53.4%
CAR
46.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ATL: Cam Newton (CAR) -0.062 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.234 EPA/dropback
  • CAR defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 23
–
CAR 22
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

ATL

Duke Riley LB Out Knee

CAR

Ryan Kalil C Out Neck
John Theus T Out Concussion
Trai Turner G Questionable Knee
Fozzy Whittaker RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 17
–
CAR 20

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:24 FG ATL (12:24) 3-M.Bryant 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 3 – CAR 0
  • Q1 03:35 TD ATL (3:35) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 12-M.Sanu for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 9 – CAR 0
  • Q2 02:00 TD CAR (2:00) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 10 – CAR 6
  • Q2 00:31 TD CAR (:31) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton scrambles right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 10 – CAR 13
  • Q3 09:08 FG CAR (9:08) 9-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. ATL 10 – CAR 17
  • Q3 01:44 FG CAR (1:44) 9-G.Gano 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. ATL 10 – CAR 20
  • Q4 03:31 TD ATL (3:31) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 26-T.Coleman for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 16 – CAR 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 65%

    (12:24) 3-M.Bryant 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (11:06) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to ATL 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 20 for 7 yards (54-S.Thompson). FUMBLES (54-S.Thompson), and recovers at ATL 22. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 23 for 1 yard (53-B.Jacobs). PENALTY on ATL-34-B.Poole, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 21.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:28) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to CAR 41, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-K.Clay MUFFS catch, and recovers at CAR 41. 12-K.Clay to CAR 41 for no gain (28-T.Ward).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:16) 5-M.Bosher punts 54 yards to CAR 10, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-K.Clay to CAR 12 for 2 yards (53-L.Reynolds). CAR-12-K.Clay was injured during the play.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 22%

    (10:43) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to ATL 3, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-10-C.Samuel.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 65%

    (4:35) 24-D.Freeman right guard to CAR 35 for no gain (20-K.Coleman; 58-T.Davis). PENALTY on ATL-81-A.Hooper, Illegal Crackback, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 35.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (9:08) 9-G.Gano 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:33) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to CAR 28, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-K.Clay.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 76%

    (3:59) 1-C.Newton up the middle to ATL 28 for 2 yards (45-D.Jones). Taylor Moton reports as eligible

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 81%

    (1:44) 9-G.Gano 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (15:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 59 yards to CAR 18, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-K.Clay to CAR 40 for 22 yards (5-M.Bosher; 36-K.Ishmael). PENALTY on CAR-27-K.Seymour, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at CAR 18.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (11:47) 5-M.Palardy punts 51 yards to ATL 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 55%

    (8:20) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 11-Ju.Jones [98-S.Lotulelei].

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 37%

    (5:33) 5-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to ATL 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:32) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to ATL 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 21 for 5 yards (53-B.Jacobs; 55-D.Mayo).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 13 at the 82 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:48) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep right to 18-T.Gabriel (27-K.Seymour).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 12 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.15 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

    (:07) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right.