4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 35

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 3-M.Bryant 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.76 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP