Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 77

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 59 yards to CAR 18, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-K.Clay to CAR 40 for 22 yards (5-M.Bosher; 36-K.Ishmael). PENALTY on CAR-27-K.Seymour, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at CAR 18.

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model