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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 46

Carolina Panthers 20 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(5:33) 5-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to ATL 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.02 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 13, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model