Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 82

Atlanta Falcons 17 – Carolina Panthers 20

(1:48) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep right to 18-T.Gabriel (27-K.Seymour).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.05 EP
69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 82, worth -3.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.82 EP