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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 12

Carolina Panthers 20 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(:07) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +1.74 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 12, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.03 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth +0.03 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.15 EP