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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 60

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 19 for 9 yards (58-S.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.69 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 60, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model