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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
Sunday 2017-11-05 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

BAL
32.1%
TEN
67.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: -0.159 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • QB edge to TEN: Marcus Mariota (TEN) +0.121 vs Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.119 EPA/dropback
  • BAL defense: -0.197 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • TEN on 4 more days rest than BAL

Predicted Final Score

BAL 18
–
TEN 22
Projected margin: TEN by 4 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

BAL

Michael Campanaro WR Out Shoulder
Chuck Clark S Out Thigh
Terrance West RB Out Calf
Nick Boyle TE Questionable Toe
Joe Flacco QB Questionable Concussion
Ryan Jensen C Questionable Shoulder
Vince Mayle TE Questionable Concussion
Jimmy Smith CB Questionable Achilles
Mike Wallace WR Questionable Back
Lardarius Webb S Questionable Concussion
Maxx Williams TE Questionable Ankle
Tim Williams DT Questionable Thigh
Jeremy Maclin WR Questionable Shoulder
Michael Pierce DT Questionable Illness
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Shoulder

TEN

Quinton Spain G Out Toe
Nate Palmer LB Questionable Ankle
Delanie Walker TE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 20
–
TEN 23

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:04 FG TEN (11:04) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. BAL 0 – TEN 3
  • Q1 06:03 FG BAL (6:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – TEN 3
  • Q1 01:10 TD TEN (1:10) 8-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 18-R.Matthews for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 3 – TEN 9
  • Q2 10:01 FG BAL (10:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 6 – TEN 10
  • Q2 02:27 TD TEN (2:27) 22-D.Henry left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TEN-77-T.Lewan, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. BAL 6 – TEN 16
  • Q4 09:01 TD BAL (9:01) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 37-J.Allen for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 12 – TEN 16
  • Q4 04:04 TD TEN (4:04) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 87-E.Decker for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – TEN 22
  • Q4 00:51 TD BAL (:51) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 17-M.Wallace for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 19 – TEN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 16 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 73%

    (11:04) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 40%

    (8:13) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch pass short left to 10-C.Moore to TEN 27 for 16 yards (23-B.McCain). PENALTY on TEN-23-B.McCain, Face Mask (15 Yards), 14 yards, enforced at TEN 27.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 9 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (6:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:01) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to BAL 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 61%

    (11:05) 37-J.Allen right end to TEN 34 for 1 yard (99-J.Casey; 59-W.Woodyard). Baltimore challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 37-J.Allen right end to TEN 33 for 2 yards (99-J.Casey; 59-W.Woodyard).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 71%

    (10:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:51) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to BAL 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-33-T.Smith.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:37) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 17 yards to BAL 26, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 15 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:00) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 19 for 9 yards (58-S.Johnson).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (13:18) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to BAL 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 31-B.Rainey pushed ob at BAL 16 for 9 yards (36-L.Sims).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 18 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (11:44) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 61 yards to TEN 31, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 44 for 13 yards (48-P.Onwuasor).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 23%

    (10:07) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to BAL 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:09) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (4:53) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to BAL 28, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 31-B.Rainey to BAL 41 for 13 yards (33-T.Smith; 32-D.Fluellen).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 92%

    (15:00) 37-J.Allen up the middle to TEN 17 for no gain (59-W.Woodyard). Baltimore challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2 at 14:55.)

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 48%

    (2:16) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-B.Watson to TEN 34 for 6 yards (55-J.Brown).