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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 18 at the 92

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(11:44) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 61 yards to TEN 31, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 44 for 13 yards (48-P.Onwuasor).

The Three Options

GO -3.87 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.89 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 92, worth -5.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 50, worth -2.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model