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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 50

Tennessee Titans 16 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(10:07) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to BAL 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.03 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 50, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model