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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 62

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(7:09) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.52 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model