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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 81

Tennessee Titans 16 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(4:53) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to BAL 28, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 31-B.Rainey to BAL 41 for 13 yards (33-T.Smith; 32-D.Fluellen).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.87 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 81, worth -4.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 38, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP