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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 17

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 37-J.Allen up the middle to TEN 17 for no gain (59-W.Woodyard). Baltimore challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2 at 14:55.)

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.64 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 17, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.75 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.00 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -1.11 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model