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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 40

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Tennessee Titans 23

What Actually Happened

(2:16) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-B.Watson to TEN 34 for 6 yards (55-J.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.59 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +0.23 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model