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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 43

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(8:13) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch pass short left to 10-C.Moore to TEN 27 for 16 yards (23-B.McCain). PENALTY on TEN-23-B.McCain, Face Mask (15 Yards), 14 yards, enforced at TEN 27.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.44 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model