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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 12

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(6:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.11 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model