Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 3 – Baltimore Ravens 3

(4:01) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to BAL 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model