Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 74

Buffalo Bills 7 – New York Jets 10

(13:43) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to NYJ 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-E.McGuire.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 74, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model