4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
BUF Away

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Thursday 2017-11-02 · 20:25 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

BUF
48.7%
NYJ
51.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: -0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Josh McCown (NYJ) -0.051 vs Tyrod Taylor (BUF) +0.117 EPA/dropback
  • BUF defense: -0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 20
–
NYJ 21
Projected margin: NYJ by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

BUF

Charles Clay TE Out Knee
E.J. Gaines CB Out Hamstring
Ramon Humber LB Questionable Thumb
Jordan Poyer S Questionable Knee

NYJ

Lawrence Thomas RB Out Concussion
Terrence Brooks S Doubtful Hamstring
Brandon Shell T Doubtful Neck
Morris Claiborne CB Questionable Foot
Muhammad Wilkerson DE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 21
–
NYJ 34

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:51 TD NYJ (7:51) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown scrambles left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 14:57 TD BUF (14:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short middle to 11-Z.Jones for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – NYJ 7
  • Q2 10:30 FG NYJ (10:30) 7-C.Catanzaro 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. BUF 7 – NYJ 10
  • Q3 09:56 TD NYJ (9:56) 15-J.McCown pass deep right to 11-R.Anderson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – NYJ 16
  • Q3 04:23 TD NYJ (4:23) 70-D.Dozier reported in as eligible. 22-M.Forte right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – NYJ 23
  • Q4 11:26 TD NYJ (11:26) 22-M.Forte up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 7 – NYJ 30
  • Q4 06:46 FG NYJ (6:46) 7-C.Catanzaro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. BUF 7 – NYJ 34
  • Q4 04:16 TD BUF (4:16) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 10-D.Thompson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 13 – NYJ 34
  • Q4 02:31 TD BUF (2:31) 5-T.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ-41-B.Skrine, Defensive Offside, declined. BUF 20 – NYJ 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (13:16) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to BUF 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde. PENALTY on BUF-26-T.Jones, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 26.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 36%

    (4:58) 6-C.Schmidt punts 36 yards to NYJ 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-14-J.Webb.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:19) 4-L.Edwards punts 56 yards to BUF 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 38 for 6 yards (95-J.Martin).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 79%

    (10:30) 7-C.Catanzaro 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 13 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:58) 6-C.Schmidt punts 41 yards to NYJ 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (3:30) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to BUF 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 25 for 12 yards (54-B.Carter).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:43) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to NYJ 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-E.McGuire.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:45) 6-C.Schmidt punts 51 yards to NYJ 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-E.McGuire to NYJ 30 for 10 yards (35-M.Tolbert; 40-T.Vallejo).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 29%

    (6:46) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to BUF 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 6 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:20) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to NYJ 39, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-E.McGuire.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 47%

    (13:08) 4-L.Edwards punts 31 yards to BUF 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (10:33) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short right to 87-J.Matthews.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (6:46) 7-C.Catanzaro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.