Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 47

New York Jets 17 – Buffalo Bills 7

(6:46) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to BUF 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.14 EP
63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 47, worth -2.51 EP

KICK -1.25 EP

29% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
71% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model