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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 88

Buffalo Bills 7 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to NYJ 39, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-E.McGuire.

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.52 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 88, worth -5.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model