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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 68

Buffalo Bills 7 – New York Jets 31

What Actually Happened

(10:33) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short right to 87-J.Matthews.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.11 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 26, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model