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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 88

New York Jets 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 4-L.Edwards punts 56 yards to BUF 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 38 for 6 yards (95-J.Martin).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.65 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 88, worth -4.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 46, worth -2.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model