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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 38

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(:28) 4-J.Lambo 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.71 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 38, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
What Happened
  • 52% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model