Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- JAX defense: -0.239 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- CIN offense: -0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
- JAX on 7 more days rest than CIN
- Blake Bortles (JAX): -0.075 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- CIN defense: -0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 9
CIN
JAX
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 02:34 FG JAX (2:34) 4-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman. CIN 0 – JAX 3
- Q2 07:01 TD JAX (7:01) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 11-M.Lee for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – JAX 9
- Q2 04:18 TD CIN (4:18) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CIN-71-A.Smith, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CIN 6 – JAX 10
- Q2 00:28 FG JAX (:28) 4-J.Lambo 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman. CIN 7 – JAX 13
- Q3 06:55 FG JAX (6:55) 4-J.Lambo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman. CIN 7 – JAX 16
- Q4 14:54 TD JAX (14:54) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to JAX 37, Center-46-C.Harris. 85-J.Mickens for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – JAX 22
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 50Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 22%
(6:43) 10-K.Huber punts 35 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.
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Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%
(2:34) 4-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
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Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 30%
(15:00) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to JAX 4, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-12-A.Erickson.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 52%
(:28) 4-J.Lambo 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
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Q3 CIN 4th & 15 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(11:44) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-16-C.Core.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EPp(convert) 63% p(FG) 97%
(6:55) 4-J.Lambo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 15 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(1:13) 3-B.Nortman punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-43-M.Overton, Touchback. PENALTY on CIN-42-C.Fejedelem, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(14:54) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to JAX 37, Center-46-C.Harris. 85-J.Mickens for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 47Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EPp(convert) 57% p(FG) 28%
(10:16) 3-B.Nortman punts 32 yards to CIN 15, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
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Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(9:17) 10-K.Huber punts 55 yards to JAX 30, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris.