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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 58

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-16-C.Core.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.10 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 58, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model