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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 8

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(6:55) 4-J.Lambo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +3.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.60 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 8, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP