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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 3-B.Nortman punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-43-M.Overton, Touchback. PENALTY on CIN-42-C.Fejedelem, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.97 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model