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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 47

Jacksonville Jaguars 23 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 3-B.Nortman punts 32 yards to CIN 15, Center-43-M.Overton, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.85 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP