Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 85

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 23

(9:17) 10-K.Huber punts 55 yards to JAX 30, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-46-C.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.11 EP
68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model