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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 14

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 4-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-M.Overton, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.66 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model