Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 54

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 8-J.Vogel punts 37 yards to DET 17, Center-54-D.Hart, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew. PENALTY on DET-24-N.Lawson, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at DET 17.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.12 EP
66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 54, worth -2.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model