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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
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GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
Monday 2017-11-06 · 20:30 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

DET
39.2%
GB
60.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: -0.144 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Brett Hundley (GB) -0.311 vs Matthew Stafford (DET) -0.083 EPA/dropback
  • GB on 7 more days rest than DET
  • GB defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 19
–
GB 22
Projected margin: GB by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

DET

Greg Robinson T Out Ankle
Kenny Golladay WR Doubtful Hamstring
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Knee
Don Carey S Questionable Knee

GB

Joe Thomas LB Out Ankle
Martellus Bennett TE Doubtful Shoulder
Ahmad Brooks LB Doubtful Back
Quinton Dial DT Doubtful Chest
Damarious Randall CB Questionable Hamstring
Lane Taylor G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 30
–
GB 17

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:50 TD DET (1:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – GB 0
  • Q2 02:53 TD DET (2:53) 21-A.Abdullah right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – GB 0
  • Q2 00:02 FG GB (:02) 2-M.Crosby 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-D.Hart, Holder-8-J.Vogel. DET 14 – GB 3
  • Q3 09:10 FG DET (9:10) 5-M.Prater 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 17 – GB 3
  • Q4 12:33 FG DET (12:33) 5-M.Prater 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 20 – GB 3
  • Q4 09:55 TD GB (9:55) (No Huddle) 7-B.Hundley left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 20 – GB 9
  • Q4 08:12 TD DET (8:12) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 11-M.Jones for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 26 – GB 10
  • Q4 01:46 FG DET (1:46) 5-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 30 – GB 10
  • Q4 00:00 TD GB (:00) (Shotgun) 30-J.Williams right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 30 – GB 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 90%

    (6:50) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (91-A.Robinson), Center-54-D.Hart, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (15:00) 8-J.Vogel punts 48 yards to DET 29, Center-54-D.Hart. 39-J.Agnew to DET 29 for no gain (11-T.Davis).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 11 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 61%

    (10:36) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:44) 8-J.Vogel punts 37 yards to DET 17, Center-54-D.Hart, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew. PENALTY on DET-24-N.Lawson, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at DET 17.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 93%

    (:02) 2-M.Crosby 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-D.Hart, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 9 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 83%

    (9:10) 5-M.Prater 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 29%

    (7:27) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass short left to 18-R.Cobb to GB 47 for -3 yards (27-G.Quin).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 7 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:37) 8-J.Vogel punts 43 yards to DET 27, Center-54-D.Hart. 39-J.Agnew to DET 36 for 9 yards (54-D.Hart; 25-M.Evans).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.91 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (12:33) 5-M.Prater 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 13 at the 55
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Adams [94-E.Ansah].

  • Q4 DET 4th & 12 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

    (1:46) 5-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.