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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 17

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(:02) 2-M.Crosby 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-D.Hart, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +2.89 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 17, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 27, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model