4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 26

Detroit Lions 14 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 5-M.Prater 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.82 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model