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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 50

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(7:27) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass short left to 18-R.Cobb to GB 47 for -3 yards (27-G.Quin).

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.92 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 50, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model