4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 1

Detroit Lions 17 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 5-M.Prater 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +3.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.64 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.91 EP