Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 10 – Detroit Lions 27

(6:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Adams [94-E.Ansah].

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP

What Happened

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.67 EP
71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 55, worth -2.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EP