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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 12

Detroit Lions 27 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 5-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model